Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Analysis of Penang Parlimentary Seats. BN Come Back Plan !

This a simple analysis of the Penang State parlimentary seats.

Penang has - 13 Parlimentary Seats. Currently BN has only 2 seat out of these 13. Herein is the table.



P41 and P42
Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor will remain with BN. The development for these 2 areas for the last 3 years shows the the MP's really worked hard to maintain the status quo of BN support. This is Pak Lah and YB Noor Mohamed areas respectively. YB Sharif Omar did a good job here.

P43
Bagan - strong shift to BN PRU 13

This area has more than 70% Chinese voters. At least 35% of the Chinese of this area support BN. The swing in the Indian and Malay votes , is the primary factor that Bagan fell to DAP.
 So far all developments here basically attributed to the support of Chinese Chambers of Commerce.
The total combine of Malay and Indian votes = 29% will help to swing the vote back to BN....

P44 - strong shift to BN PRU 13
Permatang Pauh
M             I               C             Others

68.50%6.30%24.79%0.41%


Looking at the race composition this is Anwar base support area. The Malays are divided - 70% PKR and 30% UMNO...The trick to Permatang Pauh is to get the Indian 6.30% , Others 0.41% and Chinese 24.79%. Basically there is no development whatsoever since PKR took over P44 for the last 10 years.

With Anwar Ibrahim implicated, the Malays are divided 50/50...another strong contender to fallback to BN.

P45
Bukit Mertajam

This seat with 72% Chinese vote, still the trick should be on the Indians and Malays votes to neutralize the huge support for DAP...A lot of municipalities issue here especially congested traffic...

A 50/50 for PR and BN

P46
Batu Kawan

With Indians falling out against DAP and PKR....and if the Malays unite, this is a sure deal BN area to claim.

P47 - BN - PRU 13
Nibong Tebal
M             I               C             Dll

45.20%17.08%37.54%0.18%


The Indians will seek revenge here for the Kg Buah Pala issue with Malays traditionally strong UMNO supporters. Penang Malays are falling out against PKR...Good seat for BN to claim back.

P48
Bukit Bendera

A DAP Strong hold...Exremist Chinese is the majority in this area. Latest initiatives by the Federal Government to install new furnicular train on Penang Hill might do the trick.

P49
Tanjung
DAP strong hold

P50
Jelutong

BN must garner support from Indians and Malays here. With 30% support from the Chinese, this one will fall down back to BN.

P51
Bukit Gelugor
M              I                C           Dll

15.16%10.15%74.25%0.44%


Gerakan/MCA must support to garner the 35% support from the Chinese here. The Malays and Indians will definitely swing back here. This is where the famous Kg Buah Pala located.

P52

This seat is under Bebas and Datuk Zahrain is friendly towards UMNO. He will rejoin UMNO.

P53
The PKR is loosing grip here as the Anwar factor is weakening. The Malays here are divided 50/50...

So far, we identified these Parlimentary Seats that will fall back to BN ;

P41
P42
P43
P44
P46
P47
P51
P52
P53

These are main areas that the Federal must regain back to continue the development programs already planned for Penang.

2 comments:

  1. PKR and PAS participation under the PR grouping have taken away a lot of Malay votes in PRU12. Tun Dr Mahathir has accused Anwar and Nik Aziz of breaking up Malay unity and DAP benefitted greatly from Malays being divided. Including in the Parlimentary constituencies.

    But folks, at PRU12 many voters were fed up with Tun Dol and his SIL budak berhinguih wanna-be-PM-at-40 Khairy. Now Tun Dol is no longer on the political scene and Khairy has been quiet, not much shooting-own-foot statements like before. And 2 years of PR rule in the sates concerned have shown people their inability to govern effectively.

    They engaged in corruption, MACC was investigating Selangor DAP Exco, a lot of money raised from land tax and transfer fees, sand mining, proliferating massage parlours etc in Selangor was squandered. Khalid even asked if he could use the Zakat money for development of the State.

    Many voters have openly stated in blogs and elsewhere that they have become disillusioned with PR, regretted voting them in, want to vote BN at PRU13. Many keep quiet, having neither the time nor the mood to write or speak loudly their disgust and frustration at such things as Anwar's endless sodomy and sex scandal denials, Lim Kit Siang being shouted of his girl friend Mummy Foo's nickname by MP Wee Choo Keong, Nik Aziz's gibberish "fatwas" that include "Tuhan pun mencarut".

    So, if you people vote for DAP, PKR and PAS in the coming elections, you'll find that you are in the minority, PR comes out trounced with much less seats than now, unable to get the power they want, you cannot get any benefit from them and you will rugi your vote.

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  2. I want a reasonable and responsible Opposition in this country. Something like in Britain where there was said to be a two-party system though there are now three parties there. Maybe not like Britain where political maturity among the people is remarkable, but somewhere near that.

    How can the Opposition in Malaysia now be regarded as reasonable and responsible? The DAP does not respect the Constitution of Malaysia when it supports the Chinese schools, against Article 152 which clearly states the position of Bahasa Malaysia as the official language of the country. They have been hogging the so-called malaysian malaysia which does not take into account of the Special Position of the Malays and the Bumiputeras of Sabah and Sarawak under Article 153 of the Constitution.

    PKR is not reasonable and responsible when the leaders resort to undemocratic means to get into leadership positions and the defacto leader is embroiled in seemingly endless sodomy court cases and sex scandal accusations including with a prostitute.

    PAS is not reasonable and responsible when they propose Hudud Laws, cowed down to shouts of “Never” and “Over my dead body” by Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh, Naik Aziz keeps saying “kagum dengan Karpal”, open their mouth wide when Anwar said, arbitrarily, that Lim Kit Siang is Deputy Prime Minister candidate and both did not even suggest any important portfolio for PAS.

    Some people call them The Three Stooges and I agree. Do we vote for them? “Never” said Lim Kit Siang and “Over my dead body” said Karpal Singh.

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